Sunday, January 31, 2010

My Half-Hearted 2010 Oscar Predictions

Over the last couple of years, I would put a lot of time and thought into my Oscar Predictions, but this year I really wasn't up for it.  To be honest, I think part of my disinterest had to do with the Academy upping the number of Best Picture nominations up to ten.

When the change happened, I saw it as a way to make the actual awards show more marketable by having blockbusters in the category (what's become to be known as The Dark Knight rule) instead of just artier fare.

I really wasn't on board with the change, mostly because I didn't think TDK deserved a nom, but also because it's hard enough coming up with five movies, much less ten.  Alas, the nominations come out this Tuesday, and I still feel obligated to put together some predictions, so here I go:

Best Picture
(500) Days of Summer
Avatar *WINNER*
District 9
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

NOTES: I've only seen half of these movies, so I really cannot comment on the expertise of my picks.  I mostly went off of buzz and previous wins.  I'm pretty sure Avatar is going to take home the win, but The Hurt Locker is going to give it a run for its money.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar *WINNER*
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

NOTES: Again, I think it's going to be Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker.  Cameron's been winning a lot of the awards, but Bigelow's DGA Award win could make her the front runner. Overall, I feel pretty confident with my picks, although I could see Daniels being left out for the Academy darling Clint Eastwood (Invictus).

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart *WINNER*
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Joseph Gordan-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer

NOTES: I know JGL is a long-shot, but he's my sentimental pick. It really doesn't matter because The Dude is going to clean-up and take home the big award when it's all said and done.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side *WINNER*
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

NOTES: Ah, my weakest category.  I'm pretty sure Bullock, Sidibe, and Steep are locks.  The other two could be anyone.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds *WINNER*

NOTES: I really don't have much to say about this category.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Monique, Precious *WINNER*
Julianne Moore, A Single Man

NOTES: I would like to see the Oscar go to one of the Up in the Air ladies, but Monique has pretty much won every statue out there, so I have no reason to think the Academy will do anything different. Kruger might also be left of the list for Basterds co-star Melanie Laurent.

Best Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker *WINNER*
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

NOTES: Again, (500) Days is my sentimental pick, but it's probably going to come down to Basterds and Hurt Locker.

Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
District 9
Precious
A Single Man
Up in the Air *WINNER*

NOTES: Since Up in the Air isn't going to win Best Picture or Best Director, the Academy might give Reitman the Best Screenplay award like they did for Tarantino (Pulp Fiction) and Crowe (Almost Famous).

Best Animated Feature
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up *WINNER*

NOTES: Disney Pixar is going to make it three in a row (4 if it weren't for the horrible Cars) which makes Best Animated Feature the closest thing to a lock.

So, there are my hastily thrown together, half-hearted Oscar predictions for this year.  Usually, I take a lot of pride in getting a good number of the nominations right, but this year I'll be happy if I get at least a third correct, which would be good if this was baseball...

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